SAY YOU FIX, ENJOY AND RELAX THE DELETERIOUS EFFECT OF PEG ANNOUNCEMENTS ON FISCAL DISCIPLINE

This paper explores the impact of actual exchange rate regimes on fiscal discipline, which we purportedly link to the effect of announcing the peg and to the availability of external funds. To stress this point, the focus of the analysis is emerging markets spanning from the beginning of the nineties, given the importance of financial integration in the last fifteen years and the centrality of external financing for these countries. We empirically show that announcing the pegs has deleterious effects on fiscal discipline, while ‘de facto’ pegs which have not been announced deliver superior fiscal outcomes. The evidence suggests that this is due to the initial positive credibility shock of the announcement, which allows for easier and less costly access to the financing of fiscal deficits in emerging countries.exchange rate regimes, fiscal discipline

Robust estimation in linear regression models with fixed effects

In this work we extend the procedure proposed by Peña and Yohai (1999) for computing robust regression estimates in linear models with fixed effects. We propose to calculate the principal sensitivity components associated to each cluster and delete the set of possible outliers based on an appropriate robust scale of the residuals. Some advantage of our robust procedure are: (a) it is computationally low demanding, (b) it is able to avoid the swamping effect often present in similar methods, (c) it is appropriate for contamination in the error term (vertical outliers) and possibly masked high leverage points (horizontal outliers). The performance of the robust procedure is investigated through several simulation studies.Fixed effects models, Outlier detection, Principal sensitivity vector

Robust Henderson III estimators of variance components in the nested error model

Common methods for estimating variance components in Linear Mixed Models include Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Restricted Maximum Likelihood (REML). These methods are based on the strong assumption of multivariate normal distribution and it is well know that they are very sensitive to outlying observations with respect to any of the random components. Several robust altematives of these methods have been proposed (e.g. Fellner 1986, Richardson and Welsh 1995). In this work we present several robust alternatives based on the Henderson method III which do not rely on the normality assumption and provide explicit solutions for the variance components estimators. These estimators can later be used to derive robust estimators of regression coefficients. Finally, we describe an application of this procedure to small area estimation, in which the main target is the estimation of the means of areas or domains when the within-area sample sizes are small.Henderson method III, Linear mixed model, Robust estimators, Variance component estimators

Polyarteritis nodosa

This issue of eMedRef provides information to clinicians on the pathophysiology, diagnosis, and therapeutics of polyarteritis nodosa

Virtualisation of the test environment for signalling

ERTMS is a well-known, well-performing technology applied all over the world but it still lacks flexibility when it comes to authorisation and certification procedures. The key of its success in the future lies as much in cost reduction as in simplification of placing in service procedures. This holds true for the implementation of a new subsystem and even more so for new software releases related to subsystems already in service. Currently the placing in service process of ETCS components and subsystems requires a large amount of tests due to the complexity of the signalling systems and the different engineering rules applied. The S2R Multi-Annual Action Plan states that the effort and time consumption of these onsite tests are at least 30% for any particular project. VITE research project (VIrtualisation of the Test Environment) aims at reducing these onsite tests to a minimum while ensuring that laboratory tests can serve as evidence for valid system behaviour and are accepted by all stakeholders involved in the placing in service process. This paper presents the first VITE results